MQ 4176 · SAT → ORD

departs 6:57 PM CT · arrives 10:07 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

61% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
20%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip2.26 in

ORD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4176 · SAT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?