Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4176
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
MQ 4176 · SAT → ORD
departs 6:57 PM CT · arrives 10:07 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.25 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.