Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4209 LANDED 3:54 PM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

MQ 4209 · MIA → BNA

took off 2:57 PM ET · landed 3:54 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ 3pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

BNA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4209 · MIA → BNA

Odds over time