Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4329 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

MQ 4329 · PHX → LIT

took off 4:12 PM MT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 3:50 PM MT → 8:47 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIT?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4329 · PHX → LIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIT?