OH 5053 · DCA → AVL

departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 7:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AVL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5053 · DCA → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?