Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5148 LANDED 5:03 PM CT, ~28 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

OH 5148 · DCA → MGM

took off 4:27 PM ET · landed 5:03 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at MGM more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MGM

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MGM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5148 · DCA → MGM

Odds over time