Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5154 LANDED 12:10 PM ET, ~24 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

OH 5154 · CLT → IAD

took off 11:12 AM ET · landed 12:10 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ IAD is prone to delays

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5154 · CLT → IAD

Odds over time