OH 5202 · DCA → BGR

departs 10:00 PM ET · arrives 11:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BGR?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BGR (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5202 · DCA → BGR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BGR?