Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5221 LANDED 11:23 AM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

OH 5221 · DCA → MSN

took off 10:40 AM ET · landed 11:23 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 367 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MSN that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling340 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5221 · DCA → MSN

Odds over time