Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5266 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30

OH 5266 · MEM → PHL

departs 5:38 PM CT · arrives 9:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from MEM are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5266 · MEM → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?