Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5270 LANDED 8:43 AM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

OH 5270 · TLH → DCA

took off 6:51 AM ET · landed 8:43 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ TLH is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

TLH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5270 · TLH → DCA

Odds over time