OH 5338 · PHL → LEX

departs 9:56 PM ET · arrives 11:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LEX?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ 9pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LEX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5338 · PHL → LEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LEX?