OH 5438 · PVD → DCA

took off 8:49 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 8:38 PM ET → 10:17 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5438 · PVD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?