Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5471 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30

OH 5471 · MSN → PHL

departs 1:17 PM CT · arrives 4:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 367 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MSN that day

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling340 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.31 in

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5471 · MSN → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?