Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5512 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

OH 5512 · PHL → MSN

took off 8:53 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 8:04 PM ET → 9:41 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 367 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MSN that day

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling340 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5512 · PHL → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?