OH 5544 · DCA → PNS

took off 7:51 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 7:21 PM ET → 9:00 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PNS?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PNS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5544 · DCA → PNS

Odds over time

How late will it get to PNS?