OH 5601 · ORF → DCA

took off 5:57 PM ET · landed 6:37 PM ET (scheduled 5:52 PM ET → 7:14 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5601 · ORF → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?