Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5644 LANDED 9:30 AM ET, ON TIME · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

OH 5644 · MCI → DCA

took off 6:22 AM CT · landed 9:30 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,620 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.59 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5644 · MCI → DCA

Odds over time