Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
OO 3206 · SAN → MFR
departs 8:01 PM PT · arrives 10:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 36%
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±0 pts
+30 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +30 pts in 24h
+30 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at MFR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MFR?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
33%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MFR
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MFR (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.