Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
OO 3206 · SAN → MFR
departs 8:01 PM PT · arrives 10:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MFR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFR?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MFR
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MFR (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.