OO 3508 · AUS → TPA

took off 3:58 PM CT · expected to land 7:14 PM ET (scheduled 2:31 PM CT → 6:14 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
71%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

TPA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3508 · AUS → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?