OO 3508 · AUS → TPA

departs 2:34 PM CT · arrives 6:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
19%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 2pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,433 ft Visibility7 mi Precip1.22 in

TPA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3508 · AUS → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?