OO 3811 · STL → MSP

departs 3:48 PM CT · arrives 5:32 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from STL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3811 · STL → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?