OO 3971 · RAP → MSP

took off 10:45 AM MT · expected to land 12:49 PM CT (scheduled 11:00 AM MT → 1:38 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSP?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at MSP that day

↑ MSP is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RAP

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

RAP (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3971 · RAP → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?