OO 4166 · DTW → ATW

departs 5:24 PM ET · arrives 5:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATW?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 367 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ATW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling367 ft Visibility2.66667 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4166 · DTW → ATW

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATW?