Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4238
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
OO 4238 · ABR → MSP
departs 6:34 AM CT · arrives 7:44 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 13%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ABR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at MSP that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
Weather at each end
ABR (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.