OO 4708 · SFO → ACV

took off 11:13 AM PT · landed 11:57 AM PT (scheduled 10:15 AM PT → 11:42 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ACV more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ACV?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ACV that day

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ACV (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4708 · SFO → ACV

Odds over time

How late did it get to ACV?