Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4915
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
OO 4915 · PHX → MFR
departs 9:10 PM MT · arrives 11:38 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 15%
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MFR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFR?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MFR (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.