Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4915
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
OO 4915 · PHX → MFR
departs 9:10 PM MT · arrives 11:38 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MFR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFR?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MFR
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MFR (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.