Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5022
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
OO 5022 · IAD → JST
departs 12:45 PM ET · arrives 1:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 24%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at JST more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at JST more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JST?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into JST at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
JST (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.