Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5118
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
OO 5118 · IAD → MGW
departs 10:35 PM ET · arrives 11:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 18%
Fri 10/2 26%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MGW more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MGW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MGW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MGW?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
10pm departures from IAD are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MGW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.