OO 5378 · DEN → FSD

departs 1:40 PM MT · arrives 4:23 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±7 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FSD?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at FSD that day

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.35 in

FSD (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5378 · DEN → FSD

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSD?