OO 5505 · ORD → SBN

departs 3:35 PM CT · arrives 5:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBN?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ SBN usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.26 in

SBN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5505 · ORD → SBN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBN?