Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5796
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
OO 5796 · SFO → SMF
departs 5:08 PM PT · arrives 6:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 30%
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
SFO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.