Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5796
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
OO 5796 · SFO → SMF
departs 5:08 PM PT · arrives 6:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±3 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.