UA 1169 · HNL → LAX

departs 9:40 PM HT · arrives 6:03 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 9% of the time recently

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.30 in

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1169 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?