UA 1236 · ORD → EWR

took off 3:21 PM CT · landed 5:52 PM ET (scheduled 3:19 PM CT → 6:31 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to EWR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1236 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late did it get to EWR?