Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1477 LANDED 7:32 PM CT, ~14 MIN EARLY

Wednesday, September 30

UA 1477 · IAH → SAT

took off 6:54 PM CT · landed 7:32 PM CT (scheduled 6:42 PM CT → 7:50 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ SAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1477 · IAH → SAT

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAT?