Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1589 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 1589 · IAH → MCI

departs 8:39 PM CT · arrives 10:17 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,620 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.59 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1589 · IAH → MCI

Odds over time