Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2171 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

UA 2171 · ORD → EWR

departs 3:57 PM CT · arrives 7:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.95 in

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2171 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?