Schedule: FAA flight plans.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2638 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

UA 2638 · IAH → SEA

took off 5:17 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 4:25 PM CT → 7:12 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2638 · IAH → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?