UA 351 · DCA → ORD

departs 9:22 AM ET · arrives 10:19 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 9am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.53 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 351 · DCA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?