Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 742 LANDED 7:10 PM CT, ~41 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

UA 742 · TPA → IAH

took off 6:22 PM ET · landed 7:10 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.44 in

IAH (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 742 · TPA → IAH

Odds over time