Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1104
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 1104 · BWI → SJU
departs 6:40 PM ET · arrives 10:50 PM AT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 27%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.