Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1104
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 1104 · BWI → SJU
departs 8:10 PM ET · arrives 12:20 AM AT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Wed 9/30 26%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
8pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.