WN 1456 · MDW → MSP

departs 2:26 PM CT · arrives 3:49 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 2pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.35 in

MSP (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1456 · MDW → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?