Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 1458 · DCA → PVD
departs 3:05 PM ET · arrives 4:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 9/30
Sun 10/4 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PVD at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
PVD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.