Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2056
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 2056 · OAK → SAN
departs 9:50 AM PT · arrives 11:20 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Sun 10/4 14%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.