Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2209 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

WN 2209 · DCA → DAL

departs 8:22 PM ET · arrives 9:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DAL that day

↑ Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DAL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2209 · DCA → DAL

Odds over time