Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 2491 · PHX → BWI
departs 10:00 AM MT · arrives 5:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 18%
Fri 10/2 21%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,714 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.